摘要
在带有线性反馈的统计－动力气候模式的基础上，提出了一种非线性统计－动力气候模式。该模式的实质是用逐段线性化的统计－动力气候模式来描述气候系统的总体非线性变化特征。试验结果表明。
In this paper,basing on a statistical-dynamic climate model with the linear feedback,we proposed one kind of nonlinear statistical-dynamic climate model and make use of the nonlinear statistical-dynamic model, rainfall prediction is tested in Mengzi during the rainy season. The phase linear method in the kind of nonlinear statistical-dynamic model is considered to describe the nonlinear character of climate. The forecast experiment results show that the kind of nonlinear statistical-dynamic model can accurately predict climate change.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第3期326-333,共8页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
"云南省灾害性天气预测预报研究"课题阶段成果
关键词
动力气候模式
非线性变化
反馈因子
降水预报
Statistical-dynamic model Nonlinear variation Threshold Feed-back factor
