摘要
应用模式输出统计的逐步判别方法，对山东南部沿海４～７月海雾出现作２４ｈ的判别预报。候选预报因子包括：日本数值预报传真图、近岸台站的观测、经验设计因子及其一些组合因子。对１９９３年４～７月独立资料，进行试报检验，结果表明，预报准确率达７７％
A model output statistics(MOS) scheme, using a stepwise selection discriminant analysis approach, is used to estimate marine fog occurrence in 24h for the south coastal region of Shangdong during April to July. Available predictors include Japan numerical forecast fasimite maps, the observations of coastal stations, empirical design factors and some combining factors. The varifications of marine fog estimates for April to July 1993 (independent data) give a correct percentage of 77%.
关键词
海雾预报
模式输出统计
判别分析
marine fog forecast
south coastal region of Shangdong
model output statistics
stepwise discriminant analysis
