我国经济增长结构稳定性的实证分析

Empirical analysis of Chinese economic structure stability

上世纪90年代中期以来,我国经济在保持高速增长的同时,经济增长的成本和难度却越来越大,而且GDP增长率均值和变异系数相对于前期都显著减小.利用1978～2003年的样本数据,通过计量经济学检验得出我国经济增长在1992年左右发生了结构性变化,而资本对劳动的大量替代是导致该变化的深层次因素.

Since the the costs and difficulties middle of 1990s, China has witnessed a period of fast economic growth, however, of economic growth are getting larger and larger. Meanwhile, the mean and variance of GDP growth rate have sharply decreased. With the sample data （ 1978 - 2003） and tested by Econometric models, this paper draws the conclusions that the economic structure in China changed probably in 1992. Moreover, it further illustrates that the substitution of capital for labor is a deep - rooted factor for this change.