分层随机抽样方法估计湖南省洪江区吸毒人群规模研究

Estimating the Number of Drug Abusers in Hongjiang,Hunan by Optimum Allocation Stratified Randomized Sampling Survey

目的估计怀化市洪江区吸毒人群中HIV感染情况,为今后预测该地与吸毒相关情况服务。方法应用Poisson分布期望值可信限表,确定样本大小。应用最优分配分层随机抽样方法确定调查点。采用访谈方式获得数据,估计吸毒总人数。采用当年在所监测的感染率推算感染人数。结果最优分配随机分层抽样调查共调查1 388人,发现吸毒人员24人,占1.73%;洪江区总人口为72 709人,估计总吸毒人数1 258人。结论该方法可以满足对吸毒人数的估计。

Objective To estimate the number of drug abusers in Hongjiang of Huaihua City and to plan the required services. Methods The number of samples and the sites for survey were calculated according to the optimum allocation stratified randomized sampling survey poisson distribution suspected confidence interval. A questionnaire was designed and direct interview was used to collect the communiy- based data of drug abusers. Results A total of 1,388 persons were interviewed in the communities, 24 （1. ？3% ） were drug abusers based on communities with the optimum allocation stratified randomized sampling survey. The total number of population in Hongjiang is ？2 ,709 and the estimated number of drug abusers should be 1,258. Conclusion The method is satisfactory in estimation of the number of the drug abusers.