应用时间序列方法分析菌痢季节性分布特性

Application of Time-series Method to Analyze Seasonal Distribution of Bacillary Dysentery Incidence

目的分析菌痢是否存在季节性周期分布特征,为研究致病因素、考核防治措施提供科学依据.方法对构成双向有序列联表时间序列数据的深圳市宝安区1993 2004年菌痢逐月发病资料,利用游程检验和有序对数比检验两种不同统计方法进行季节性分布分析.结果游程检验示P＜0.05,有序对数比检验示P＞0.05.结论两种方法所得结果具有一致性,菌痢发病具有季节性升高的特征.

Objective To analyze the data of bacillary dysentery incidences that were constituted to time - series and the two- ordered contingency table in Baoan District from 1993 to 2004. Methods Two different kinds of statistical methods of run- test and ordered- log- ratio test were applied to study the characteristics of seasonal distribution. Results Runtest and ordered-log - ratio test showed that the results were significant （ P 〈 0.0.5, P 〉 0.0.5）. Conclusion Consistent conclusion was obtained to show that there appeared an obvious seasonal cyclic characteristic every year for the incidence of bacillary dysentery.