基于福利经济学的最优自愿性储蓄率分析——从中国养老保险制度角度

The Welfare Analysis of Optimal Voluntary Saving Ratio——Based on China's Pension System

本文通过两期叠代模型构造福利经济学个人效用函数,以效用最大化为目标,推导个人最优自愿性储蓄率.与以往研究不同的是,本文将混合制的养老保险制度变量纳入模型,并模拟测算最优储蓄率的解.文中选取了中国城镇居民1989～2003年的储蓄、工资样本数据分析中国的储蓄情况,发现城镇居民储蓄率偏高.除了失业担忧和购房等原因,文章认为一个重要原因是尚未建立完善的养老保险制度.由此提出一个有效的储蓄分流途径是让更多的职工加入养老保险计划,增进个人一生的效用,促进社会整体福利的帕累托改进.

The paper constructs an individual utility function by using an Over- lapping- generations model according to welfare economics principles. A formula for the optimal voluntary saving ratio is derived under the restriction of maximum utility. What is different from prior studies is that the model includes variables about mixed pension system and gives the simulating result. The sample of saving and salary of china＇s urban citizen from 1989 to 2003 is selected. But the urban citizen＇s saving rate is high. Except for worrying about unemployment and purchasing house, one important reason is that China has no a perfect pension system. Then a measurement to decrease saving rate is to get more employees into the pension plan, which can improve individual utility by smoothing consumption in the two periods of individual life and get the Pareto Improvement of social welfare.