重大突发事件扩散的微观机理研究

A Research on the Diffusion Micro-mechanism of Important Emergencies

依据重大突发事件的扩散过程,采用实证模拟方法,分析了重大突发事件的扩散路径,得到了重大突发事件的扩散方式、扩散阶段及特征、影响重大突发事件扩散的主要因素,并针对重大突发事件预警管理模式的构建提出了建议。

Applying the positive simulative method, the authors find the modes, phases and characteristics of the important emergencies and the factors which influence the course by analyzing the diffusion route of the important emergencies, based on the diffusion course of the important emergencies. In the end, the authors make some suggestions on the establishment of the early -warning management mode of important emergency.