商品指数基金、油价上涨与通货膨胀预期的自我实现

Commodity Index Funds, Oil Prices Rises and Self-Realization of Inflation Expectation

本文分析了国际商品指数基金、油价上涨与通货膨胀预期之间的循环关系, 即通货膨胀预期引发了商品指数基金大规模买入以原油为代表的一篮子大宗商品以对冲通货膨胀风险,而商品指数基金的大规模买入行为导致了原油价格大幅度上涨,原油价格上涨反过来增强了通货膨胀预期,进一步的通货膨胀预期又引发了商品指数基金的买入商品行为。这种循环关系最终导致了能源价格持续大幅度上涨和通货膨胀预期的自我实现。

This paper analyzes the cyclical relationship between commodity index funds, oil price hike and inflation expectation. With the inflation expectation, the fund buys into the basket commodities, such as oil, in order to fight against the inflation. The buying leads to rises of oil price, which in turn enhances the inflation expectation. The enhancement of the inflation expectation stimulates further buying. In this way, the cyclical relationship brings about the continuous rises of oil price and the self-realization of inflation expectation.