一种动态联盟企业风险概率识别方法

Method to Identify Risk Probability of Virtual Enterprise

根据动态联盟企业信息具有不确定性的特点,应用贝叶斯网络对企业的风险概率进行识别.通过对贝叶斯网络的构建与分析方法的探讨,用贝叶斯网络描述企业信息变量间的依赖关系,从而识别不同风险发生的概率.仿真结果表明,贝叶斯网络可以有效地描述动态联盟企业不确定信息变量之间的依赖关系,是进行风险概率识别的一种有效方法.

According to the uncertain characteristics of information in virtual enterprise, the Bayesian network is used to identify its risk probability. Discussing the way to construct and analyze the Bayesian network, the dependency relationship of various information variables of such an enterprise is described with Bayesian network, so as to identify the different risk probabilities. Simulation results suggested that Bayesian network could effectively describe the dependency relationship of the uncertain information variables of a virtual enterprise, i.e., an effective method to identify risk probability.