在确定软件最佳投放时间时的风险控制

Optimal Release Policies for Software Systems under Principles of Incorporating Safety

为了克服平均成本最小原则无法控制风险的缺点,达到规避风险的目的,针对软件的最佳投放时间的确定,提出了“安全第一”的原则,该原则将风险控制作为首要目标.将安全第一准则与平均成本最小原则相结合,提出了一种新的决定软件最佳投放时间的混合策略,使用该混合策略,既可以保证较低的平均成本,又可以适当地控制风险。在这种新的策略下,软件最佳投放时间的决定转化为一个带概率约束的最优化问题,该问题是可解的.并且在J-M模型下,将该约束随机规划问题近似地转化成了常规的最优化问题.最后,用一个实例说明了这种新的策略的应用.

To overcome the shortcomings of the principle of minimizing the cost expectation, and to take the risk control into consideration in deciding the optimal release time of software, a principle of ＂safety-first＂ is proposed. A new hybrid principle is proposed by incorporating the cost expectation principle with the safety-first principle. By the new hybrid principle, the cost expectation and the risk can be controlled at the same time. Under the new principle, the optimal release time problems turn out to be probabilistic constrained programs in stochastic progTamming and the solution procedures are available. The stochastic programming problem is reduced to a normal progTamming problem when the hybrid principle is applied to J-M model. Finally, a numerical example is presented