北极涛动与东北冬季温度的联系

Linkage of Arctic Oscillation and Winter Temperature in Northeast China

利用1950—1999年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和东北地区冬季温度资料,借助经验正交函数(EOF)分解、相关分析、合成分析以及关联表方法,研究了北极涛动指数(Arctic Oscillation Indices,AOI)与我国东北地区冬季温度的联系。结果表明,AOI具有明显的上升趋势(趋势系数R=0.35),其振幅在1968/1969年之前较小,而在1968/1969年之后明显增大,具有明显的年代际变化;并且AOI与东北地区冬季温度具有一致的上升趋势(相关系数R=0.59)。研究表明,AO的异常变化通过西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、东亚地区极地东风以及东亚冬季风异常,进而影响我国东北地区冬季温度异常,它们之间存在着密切的相关关系。

The National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysed data from 1950 to 1999 and the temperature data of the Northeast China in winter are adopted to study the relation between the Arctic Oscillation Indices （AOI） and the temperature of the Northeast China in winter with the aid of EOF resolution, coherentanalysis, synthetic analysis and correlation-graph method. The results show that AOI has distinguished uptrend （the trend coefficient is R=0.35） with amplitudes smaller before the winter of 1968/1969 and much larger after that winter. And the uptrend of AOI and the temperature of the Northeast China in winter are compatible （with correlation coefficient R=0.59）. Further investigation find that the anomaly of AO contributes to the temperature anomalies of the Northeast China through the interaction of the Siberian high, Aleutian low, the polar easterlies in east Asia and the winds anomalies in winter in this area.