在船舶航行条件下热带气旋强度变化预报的相似离度方案

Analog Deviation Method for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change on the Occasion of Shipping

该文提出了在船舶航行条件下利用相似离度作西北太平洋热带气旋６—７２ｈ强度变化预报的方法，并进行了独立样本预报检验和实船试验，基于相似离度利用“形”和“值”两个方面全面去比较实时样本和历史样本之间的相似程度的优．点，采取了一系列相似离度应用技术，从三万多条历史样本曲线库中寻找最相似的样本曲线的未来变压进行强度变化预报，有利于提高预报准确率，减小预报误差，独立样本的预报检验和实船试验表明，该方法具有简便、迅速等特点，还具有较高的预报精度；是现行船舶航行条件下或岸上气象台站及作热带气旋强度变化预报的一种切实可行的途径。

Analog deviation method for tropical cyclone intensity change on the occasion of shipping was proposed. The method was verified by dependent samples and tested in real ships.Based on the merits that analog deviation compares the analog degrees between two samples by using both the value and the pattern, a series of analog deviation techniques were applied. Especially, intensity change predictions at 6h interval to 72h were conbined from the future concurring allobaric value of the sample curve with the minimum analog deviation derived from the historic sample curve library involved with about 3. 5 million items. This technique will facilitate to improve the correctness and decrease the errors. The verifications for dependent samples and tests in ships have showed that the method is not only characterized by convenience, promptness and higher accuracy, but it is also an feasible approach for predicting the intensity change of tropical cyclones on the accasion of shipping or for the land meteorological stations.