解决小煤矿问题对今后三年我国煤炭供需形势影响分析

Analysis of Demand and Supply of Coal Influenced by Small Coal Mine Renovationfor the Next Three Years

本文通过对当前和今后三年全国煤炭需求和供应进行了定量与定性分析和预测:当前煤炭供需总量相对平衡,煤炭供应由全面紧张趋向缓和,部分地区已出现供大于求的迹象;今后三年煤炭供应能力总体将出现过剩(假设小煤矿年生产能力继续维持在8亿t),但煤炭需求净增量降低,需求压力减小,为加快小煤矿整治提供了难得的机遇。同时,结合国务院“两个重要文件”精神,针对小煤矿占全国煤矿总数的90%、产量约占1/3的形势,提出了解决小煤矿问题的措施和建议。

The paper provides the quantitative and qualitative analyses on the coal demand and supply ot China and the forecasts of the next three years. At present, the total demand and supply of coal gets relative equilibrium, and the comprehensive intense of coal supply tends to relaxes. Moreover there have been the signs that supply exceeds demand in some areas. The supply capacity of coal will be surplus （Provided the productivity of small coal mine continues to maintain at 800 Mt/a）, but the drop of net demand increase will provide the opportunity to speed up the renovation of small coal mines. At the same time, in view of the rigorous situation that the amount of small coal mines accounts for 90 percent of the country, the output of small coal mines approximately comprises 1/3, and thus the article proposes the measures and suggestions to solve the problems of small coal mines under the rules of two important documents issued by the State Council.