摘要
金融体制改革决定了商业银行的经营目标是实现企业价值最大化,合理的信贷投资结构是提高银行价值的根本保证。银行在进行信贷投向决策中不仅要考虑企业的经营现状,更要思考企业的未来经济发展态势。文中以工业化程度较高的北方某市为例,在工业产业现状系统调查的基础上,从不同侧面选定了8个指标来评价不同行业的经营现状,重点利用灰色系统建模预测方法实现了不同行业未来3 a经济状况的指标预测,最终利用模糊综合评判方法对该市不同工业行业的未来经济前景进行综合评价,研究结果对于银行信贷投向决策具有重要的指导意义。
According to the requirement of the finance reform, the management objective of commercial bank is realizing its maximized value, and the reasonable structure of credit investment is an essential pledge. When the bank selects its credit direction, not only the present management situation of the enterprise, but also the future development trend should be thought over. Taking a Chinese north city with the high degree of industrialization as an example, based on systematic investigation for industry status, eight indices for estimating economy status has been put forward. By means of grey system {orecasting, the author has systematically forecasted the economic state of every industry for 3 years, and has synthetically assessed the coming economy foreground of these industries by fuzzy comprehensive assessment. This result has an instructive significance for credit direction of the bank.
出处
《西安科技大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2005年第4期533-536,542,共5页
Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology
关键词
信贷投向
灰色建模预测
模糊综合评判
credit direction
grey system forecasting model
fuzzy comprehensive assessment
