陕西省经济周期波动的数量特征分析

Analysis for the quantity characteristics of the fluctuation in economic circle in Shaanxi Province

利用GDP增长率对陕西省改革开放以来经济周期波动的数量特征进行了分析,认为陕西省经济周期波动与全国基本同步,经济增长的势头强劲,经济增长的稳定性、经济的可持续发展能力大大增强,但20世纪90年代后中期宏观调控求稳,改革力度略显不足。同时,针对中国经济目前处于新一轮周期的扩张期,经济将呈现较平稳而快速发展的态势,提出政府应采取中性宏观经济政策的建议。

This paper analyzes the quantity characteristics of the fluctuation in economic circle through GDP growing rate in Shaanxi Province since reforms and opening-up. The results are that the fluctuation in economic circle in Shaanxi Province keeps in step with the nationwide fluctuation, economic growth is powerful, and the stabilization of economic growth and the ability of economic sustainable development have been strengthened. However, the macroscopic control was too steady in the second half of the 1990s and in depth reform was not further carried out. Aimed at the current economy in China, which is in new rounds of economic expansion and characterized by stable development and high speed, the paper suggests that the government should adopt neutral macroscopic economic policies.