灰色模型在城市月用水量预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) in predicting city monthly water demands

中期用水量预测,它为各个城市水司制定月用水量生产计划提供重要依据.针对我国城市月用水量数据序列的特点对其进行分析研究,利用灰色系统理论,建立预测月用水量GM(1,1)模型.并以东北某大城市月用水量为原始数据进行了实际预测.通过MAPE检验证明GM(1,1)模型为一种行之有效的预测月用水量的模型.

This paper puts forward metaphase water demands forecasting which is the important basis for every water supply service to make monthly water supply plans. According to Chinese monthly water demands character, using GM （ 1, 1 ） model established the monthly water demands model. By practical project the model is proved to be effective and practical.