农林复合经营系统模式化仿真模型研究

Simulation Models for Agroforcstry System

通过实地考察和资料收集,采用系统动力学方法建立了黄淮平原典型农林复合经营系统的模式化仿真模型。模型中包括人口、土地、农业、林业、牧业等多个子系统,并对农林复合经营系统中主要的反馈关系给予了充分的反映。通过对菏泽地区大田集镇的实际运用,揭示了该镇未来15年农林业发展的趋势和所应注意的潜在问题,并提出了相应的解决设想。同时还对模型自身的发展提出了设想。

This study developed a dynamic model which simulates the typical agroforcestry system in Huang-Huai Plain. The model's components includes population, land-use, agriculture, forestry and husbandry. And important feedback relations were detailed represented. By using the model in Datianji Twawn, The prospects of its agroforestry development and potential problems were showed, and possible solution to the problems was suggested.