时间序列在路基填筑期间的应用研究

Application of Time Series in Constructing Subgrade

鉴于高速公路施工的被动性,利用时间序列建立数学模型。对具有非平稳性的表面沉降进行一次差分(d=1)处理,将其转化为平稳性的沉降速率问题,即将非平稳性时间序列ARIMA(p,d,q)模型转化为平稳的ARMA(p,q)模型。建立了ARMA(1,1)模型来对公路施工填筑期间的沉降进行短期预测,从而对下一级加载的时间进行预测。结果表明,预测结果可靠,精度高,能够很好地反映填筑期间沉降的变形特性,适用于高速公路重点断面分析。

Mathematics models were established with time series for the passivity of expressway construction. The unrest surface settlement was converted to rest settlement velocity by dealing with simple difference（d = 1 ）, namely the unrest time series ARIMA（p, d, q ） model was transformed to rest ARMA（ p, q ） model. ARMA（ 1,1 ） model was established to forecast the settlement during constructing subgrade and the time for next load. The forecast results are precise and reliable, and can refleet the distortion characteristics during constructing subgrade.