近年来国内ENSO研究概述

SUMMARY OF CHINESE RESEARCH ON ENSO IN RECENT YEARS

综合介绍了近年来国内学者在ENSO研究中取得的一些进展,包括ENSO事件的指标和强度指数、ENSO的机制、ENSO的预测。认为ENSO研究中其指标和强度指数朝着综合指标方面发展是一种趋势;ENSO循环不仅仅是一种热带海洋气候和大气气候事件,更是一种全球性行为,其机制的研究还有待深入;对ENSO的模式预测存在不稳定,尚不能完整、准确地预报所有El Ni?o/La Ni?a事件。

This paper summarized some progresses of Chinese research about ENSO in recent years. It included the ENSO intensity indices and indicators, the ENSO mechanism and its prediction. It drew the conclusion that the intensity indices and indicators should develop to be synthesis indicators in the ENSO research, the ENSO cycle should be not only an event of the tropic ocean climate or the atmospheric climate, but also a global behavior, whose mechanism research should be done in the future, and the models to predict the ENSO were not stable enough to forecast all the EI Nino/La Nina events fully or accurately.