摘要
作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差。概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。
The main topic in earthquake dynamics is to deal with rupture processes, faulting mechanism, source radiation, and propagation of the radiated seismic waves and ground motions, on which seismic hazard assessment is based. Critical theories of earthquake mechanics, source radiation and energy release are intensively studied in this paper for a completeness of systematic investigation on the topic. Using the state - of- the - art methods for seismic hazard analysis, with which the seismological, geological and geodetic inputs are combined into logic trees, samples of the ground - motion evaluation are applied to the typical tectonic sources of earthquakes including the crustal seismogenic zones, subduction interfaces and intraslabs. Various ground motion attenuation models with respect to faulting mechanism were examined and demonstrated through both the probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Uncertainties exist in either aleatory variability or epistemic uncertainty, but a weighted average of various alternatives in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and the combination in methodology of PSHA and DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) should better prevent it from producing an extremely biased output of hazard estimates.
出处
《高校地质学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第4期512-520,共9页
Geological Journal of China Universities
关键词
地震动力这
板块构造
地面运动衰减
地震灾害
概率分析和确定性分析
earthquake dynamics
plate tectonics
ground motion attenuation
seismic hazard
probabilistic and deterministic analysis