动态拦蓄洪尾风险调度模型初探

Dynamic Risk Dispatching Model for Intercepting and Storing Flood Tail

分析了实施水库拦蓄洪尾风险调度的可行性、必要性和影响拦蓄水位确定的主要因素；提出 了动态拦蓄洪尾风险调度模型，该模型可以表达汛期不同时间水库拦蓄洪尾水位的动态变化；从目 标函数的物理意义出发，提出了模糊综合评判法和试算法相结合的求解方法，该方法能最大限度体 现决策者的偏好，保障解的合理性和可操作性。实例研究表明，文中提出的方法是合理、有效的。

The feasibility and necessity of risk dispatching in intercepting and storing flood tail, and the main factors affecting the intercepted and stored water level are analyzed, A dynamic risk dispatching model for intercepting and storing flood tail is established. In flood season, it is capable of expressing the change of dynamic stored water level of any flood process, Based on the physical meaning of the objective function, a method which combines fuzzy comprehensive evaluation with trial and error method is proposed, This method can maximally consider the bias of decision makers, and guarantee the rationality and practicability of the solutions, A case study shows that the proposed method is reasonable and effective.