中国服务贸易与GDP关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between International Service Trade and GDP of China

本文根据协整理论,利用中国1985～2004年度的经济数据,对中国服务贸易进出口与GDP的关系进行了实证分析。实证研究的结果表明,中国服务贸易进口、出口与GDP之间存在着唯一的协整关系;服务贸易进口、出口与GDP均不存在双向的因果关系。文章提出,从长期来看,服务贸易进口、出口对GDP增长的净效应为正,而服务贸易出口是GDP的因;从短期来看,服务贸易进出口对经济增长作用很小;所以应大力鼓励服务贸易出口,带动GDP及国民收入增加;在采取措施促进服务贸易出口的选择上,应采用长期政策而非短期政策。

According to the co-integration theory, the authors make an empirical analysis of the relationship between service import-export and GDP by using economic data of 1985-2004 fiscal years. Shown as the result, there exits the only co-integration relationship between service import-export and GDP. Moreover, there doesn＇t exit bi-directional causal relationship between service import-export and GDP. The long-run policies rather than short-run ones should be adopted on the promotion of service trade.