济宁市耕地资源可持续利用研究

Study on Sustainable Utilization of Cultivated Land Resources in Jining City

耕地是稀缺性资源,具空间位置的不可移动性和使用的排他性,必须讲求永续利用,追求经济、社会和生态效益的统一。从耕地持续利用的内涵出发,建立耕地可持续利用评价指标体系,运用相关系数法确定各评价指标的权重,并根据系统科学的灰色预测理论,利用DPS数据处理软件的GM(1,1)模块对耕地资源可持续利用进行评价,证实了济宁市耕地可持续利用性在1991—2003年处上升阶段;并预测2004—2020年该市耕地资源可持续性仍呈上升趋势,但要注意控制影响耕地可持续性利用的因素。

Cultivated land resources, as a rare resource,has fixability in space position and excludability in utilization. It demands sustainability in using process,and pursues unity of economy, society and ecology. From the aspect of sustainable utilization, evaluation index system of cultivated land sustainable utilization is established. By using related coefficient, the weight of each index was calculated. According to scientific gray forecast theory, using GM（1, 1） module of DPS data processing software, it is tested that sustainable utilization of cultivated land in 1991-2003 in Jining city stands in a rising stage. It is predicated that cultivated land will still in a rising stage in 2004-2020, but sustainable utilization elements which will effect cultivated land should be controlled.