万安水库调度的蓄水风险和发电风险计算

Risk calculation of storing water and generating electricity of Wan'an Reservoir operation

首先建立万安水库长期发电优化调度模型并求解,通过对优化结果统计分析,获得水库各旬(或月)最优调度函数(规则),作为指导该时段水库调度的依据.在此基础上,分别考虑面临时段无预报时入库径流服从P-III总体分布和有预报时预报误差服从正态分布两种情况。通过随机模拟计算,获得了时段末水库蓄水目标和发电目标不能实现的概率.实例研究表明:优化模型与随机模拟相结合,为水库发电调度的风险分析提出了一种新途径.

An optimal long-term operation model of Wan＇an Reservoir is established and solved by applying DP algorithm. Next, based on these optimal results, these operation rules for generating electricity in every time interval are presented and analyzed. Then , two kinds of methods describing the stochastic character of reservoir inflow are discussed. One is that reservoir inflow is subject to Pearson Ⅲ distribution without inflow forecast available. The other is that forecast error is subject to normal distribution with reservoir inflow information. Last, by stochastic simulation technique, the rate of risk that the reservoir water level at the end of the time interval is lower the target level is calculated. The rate of risk that the generating electricity in the time interval is lower the target level also is obtained. The case study shows that the combination of optimal operation model and stochastic simulation gives a new approach of risk analysis for reservoir operation.