劳动力供求“拐点”与中国二元经济转型

Lewis Turning-Points and Chinese Transition in Dual Economy

与刘易斯模型预测的“拐点”不同,中国经济中出现了伴随着高达60%比例农村人口的普通劳动力工资水平的上升现象,文章称之为“准刘易斯拐点”。尽管有多方面因素促成这一现象,但中国经济中仍然存在一些潜在力量促使这一冲击现象尽快结束。文章认为,面对伴随“民工荒”而出现的中国“拐点”问题,中国政府政策需要做出一系列调整,以建立良性循环和互信互利的劳动力市场环境及劳资关系。经过政府、企业与新生代劳工之间的调适和努力,中国经济很可能会较好地渡过“民工荒”冲击阶段,回到正常的二元经济转型轨道。

Different from the prediction of Lewis turning-point theory, the wage of the ordinary Chinese rural labor force increased by nearly 60 percent in recent years. This new development, defined as the new turning-point or 'Quasi-Lewis Turning-Point', is brought about by many factors existing in the Chinese economy. However, some potential forces in the Chinese economy are probably going to alter the direction of the new turning-point and terminate this development. In face of the shortage of migrant workers, the Chinese government has to readjust its policies in real earnest to create a labor market environment of mutual trust and benefit and improve labor-capital relations. With the joint efforts of the government, enterprises and a new generation of workers, the Chinese economy will meet the shortage of labour and return to the normal track of the dualistic development in the near future.