国内石油市场形势分析与1996年展望

Review of China's 1995 Oil Market and Prospects for 1996

1995年国内石油市场呈现4个主要特点:(1)原油价格管理和资源统一配置办法得到进一步完善;(2)油品市场整顿全面展开并取得显著成效;(3)油品价格由低趋高再走低;(4)国内、国际石油市场的联系更加紧密。展望1996年,国内经济发展将呈平缓推进态势,石油价格大起大落的可能性相对减小。在原油配置和价格方面,仍将按照1995年的模式运作,但相应增加管理费用以提高原油配置的到位率。在成品油价格政策上,将继续实行统一定价原则,价格总水平不会上涨。1996年国际石油价格预计呈低价位,有可能对国内市场产生影响。因此,应继续加强对进口石油总量的调控,同时结合国内情况利用好两个市场、两种资源。

China's domestic oil market exhibited four major characteristics in 1995: 1) Further improvements were made in crude oil pricing administration and the implementation of a unified resources distribution system ; 2) across the board reorganization of the oil products market achieved notable results; 3) oil products prices exhibited a rising and then falling trend i 4) connections between the domestic and international petroleum markets were intensified. It is expected that 1996 will see continued steady growth in the domestic economy and fewer fluctuations in oil prices. Crude pricing and allocation will continue to follow the pattern set in 1995; however, relevant administrative fees will be raised in order to increase the arrival rate of allocated crude. The principle of unified pricing will continue to direct policy on finished oil product prices, which will generally not be increased. It is expected that prices on the international oil market will remain low in 1996, with a potential effect on the domestic market. It will therefore be necessary to continue to strengthen regulation of total oil imports, while at the same time utilizing both foreign and Chinese markets and resources according to domestic and international conditions.