“九五”中国能源形势分析与预测

Analysis and Predictions Concerning China's Energy Situation during the Ninth Five-Year Plan

本文采用灰色系统的方法,建立等维新息GM(1,1)模型,对1995～2000年我国能源生产及消费总量进行预测。结果表明,电力工业发展较为稳定,石油、煤炭生产波动较大,发展后劲不足。“九五”期间能源供需缺口将逐步增大。到2000年能源产量将达到12.87亿吨标准煤,能源消费将达到14.82亿吨标准煤,供需缺口将由0.05亿吨扩大到2亿吨标准煤。“九五”期间我国能源形势不容乐观。解决我国能源问题必须搞好能源综合发展规划,增强石油、煤炭、电力工业的发展后劲,加强能源建设投资力度,同时要大力挖掘节能潜力。

This paper utilizes the Gray System to create a model predicting China's total energy production and consumption from 1995 - 2000. The model indicates that growth of the electric power industry will be relatively stable. However, due to fluctuations in production, further development of oil and coal will bring insufficient results. During the period of the Ninth Five-Year Plan (1996 - 2000), the gap between production and consumption of energy re- sources will gradually increase. By the year 2000, energy production will reach 1287 Mtce, while consumption will top 1482 Mtce, the shortfall correspondingly increasing from 5 to 200 Mtce. China's energy situation during the Ninth Five-Year Plan cannot be considered optimistic. In order to solve the country's energy problems, it will be necessary to implement a comprehensive energy development program ; further develop the oil, coal, and electric power industries; and increase investment in energy construction projects, while at the same time concentrating on exploiting all energy saving opportunities.