大连地区近44a冬季气温的变化特征

Variations of Winter Temperature in DaLian during the Recent 44 Years

利用大连地区1960—2004年的气温资料,应用一元线性回归、小波分析、气候趋势系数等方法,对大连地区气温的季节—年际变化特征进行了研究,着重分析了该地区冬季气温年际、年代际变化的时空特征。结果发现,大连四季都有增暖的变化趋势,其中春、冬两季增暖的速度最快;20世纪60年代大连地区的冬季气温呈下降趋势,从70年代以后,冬季气温呈明显的增暖趋势,特别是90年代以后这种增暖趋势十分显著,而且增暖的幅度全区分布不均匀;大连地区冬季气温与全国冬季气温年代际变化的步调基本一致。

By using the air temperature data from 1960 to 2004, the seasonal and inter-annual variations of temperature in DaLian are studied in this paper using methods of linear trend estimate, Morlet-wavelet analysis, and temperature trend coefficient analysis etc, with inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of winter temperature being emphatically studied. It is found that the warming trend is obvious in four seasons, and the warming rates in spring and winter are higher than those in other seasons. The winter temperature in DaLian showed a decreasing trend in 1960＇s, but it began to rise distinctively in 1970＇s, and the warming trend was very obvious in 1990＇s. The variations of winter temperature in DaLian were consistent with those in whole China.