近150年北京春季物候对气候变化的响应

Responses of Spring Phenology to Climate Changes in Beijing in Last 150 Years

对北京春季6种物候的计算得出其代表性指标-山桃始花期,并分析物候对气温变化的响应模式.根据气温变化态势,将历史时期气温和物候资料划分为4个时间段,并采用u检验论证时间段间具有显著性差异,分析物候期对气温变化的响应模式和机制,得出:物候期的提前与推迟对温度的增高与降低的响应是非线性的,在同等增、降温幅度下,因降温而导致的物候期推迟幅度较因增温而导致物候期提前幅度小;平均气温增高1℃,北京春季物候期提前2.8～3.6d.并估算了未来北京春季物候变化趋势.

Based on the calculation of six plant phenology in spring in Beijing, a expresentative index of spring phenology, was used to analyze response model of plant phenology to temperature changes. According to changing trends of temperature, temperature and phenology data in historical periods were categorized to four series with the same length of time slice. Prominence differences of two series were verified by u-test. Response model and mechanisms of phenophase on temperature changes were analyzed in different series with different models of temperature changes. It had been concluded that the response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change was nonlinear. At the same amplitude of temperature change, phenophase delay amplitude caused by temperature decrease was less than phenophase advance amplitude caused by temperature increase; If the temperature increased 1℃, spring phenophase in Beijing would advance 2.8-3.6 days.