基于模糊集值理论的城市应急避难所应急适应能力评价方法研究

On assessment method to emergency shelter adaptation by using the statistic theory for fuzzy centralization

以层次分析法为基础,根据城市应急避难所的功能特点,从规划设计、内部硬件设施、外部软件环境3个方面出发,选定18个评价指标,构造了城市应急避难所应急适应能力影响因素的层次结构,建立了综合评价模型。基于模糊集值统计理论,求出了各指标的合成权重,并对其权值进行了可靠性分析。利用线性加权模型得出应急适应能力评价结果。最后,以北京市某应急避难所作为实例进行了计算。结果表明,该应急避难所应急适应能力处于良好状态。

The paper aims to present the authors＇ research on an Assessment Approach to emergency shelter adaptation by using the statistic theory for fuzzy centralization based on the analytic hierarchy processing （AHP）. In our research we have selected 18 assessment indexes. The whole research has been done around the planning, internal hardware and external software environment, according to the inherent characteristics of the urban emergency shelter, then followed by an analysis of the hierarchical comprehensive assessment model of factors, which may affect the emergency shelter adaptation. Based on the theory of fuzzy centralization statistics, the total weights of all the indexes are brought about for the reliability analysis. The assessment conclusion can be drawn through the linear adding weight model. The results of analysis indicate that the value of emergency adaptation is good via one example in Beijing. The conclusion also indicates that the assessment method is more objective than other methods and it can be applied to many assessment fields, such as management, re- source planning and sustainable development, though the assessment index system is not yet perfect, which leaves much to do in the future. With the ever-speeding-up pace of urbanization and the sprawling of our urban areas, all kinds of haphazard keep happening to our cities from time to time incessantly. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to improve the assessment for emergency management capacity in hope to reduce the losses and provide quantitative basis for governmental decisions.