国家经济风险评价模型的一种改进

An Improvement to Country Economic Risk Assessment Model

在全球面临金融一体化及贸易全球化形势下,各国金融机构、工商企业以及投资者纷纷向海外进行国际贷款和投资。投资者将面临新的潜在风险,其中又以国家经济风险属国际投资活动中最容易给投资者造成经济损失的风险。对国家经济风险的研究具有重要现实意义。文章首先叙述国家经济风险研究意义、国家经济风险定义、国家经济风险影响因素以及通常的国家经济风险定量评估模型,指出通常的国家经济风险定量评估模型值得改进的地方,再以亚洲地区五个国家实际数据进行实证分析,表明改进以后的定量评估模型在预测精度上得到明显提高。

In today＇s world with increasing globalisation of international trade and financial integration, an important risk that faces the lenders and investors in the context of international lending and investment is the so-called country risk. This paper attempts to first examine the importance of country risk evaluation and define what country risk is. This is followed by a review of key country＇s economic risk factors and models commonly used in country risk assessment. The analysis points out areas where improvement may be made in the existing risk models. Results of an empirical country risk model for five Asian countries are presented as an alternative better method for estimating debt rescheduling probability.