深井充填管道失效概率准则的模糊综合评判

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on probability failure criteria of the deep level pipelines filling system

以深井管道自流输送工艺为研究对象, 通过层次分析并利用二级模糊综合评判方法, 确定系统失效的可接受概率. 将深井充填工艺可能发生的输送失效划分为6个因素和5个等级. 在此基础上, 以层次分析法确定因素权重, 以等比值递增法或递减法确定5个因素等级隶属度, 应用经验和参照类似工艺系统将系统允许概率范围确定为[10-4 ,10-2], 并将其离散为9个区间. 最后, 采用三角函数和插值模糊推理及二级模糊综合评判方法, 得到了系统的模糊综合评判集和可接受的失效概率. 以管道设计水平较高、材料和施工质量一般、维护管理水平一般、运行环境较差、事故后果严重为例对系统进行评判, 得到其事故的可接受概率为7.743×10-4～12.915×10-4, 即介于适度发生概率到不易发生概率之间, 与现有系统实际发生的事故概率基本吻合.

The accredited probability of failure system was obtained by means of analytic hierarchy process and secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on deep level pipelines filling with gravity through them. 6 main factors and 5 grades were established when transportation failure occured in the deep level pipelines filling technology, and the weight of factors was gained on the basis of analytic hierarchy process and the grade subordinate degree of 5 factors was found according to equal ratio decrease or increase by degrees. The allowed probability ranges are between [10^-4,10^-2] and they are discrete in 9 ranges by means of experience and analogous technology. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation set of system and the accredited failure probability were calculated by trigonometric function, interpolation fuzzy deducing and secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Furthermore, an example, whose pipelines filling system is good in design, middle in material and construction quality and maintenance manage level, bad in operation circumstance, and grave in aftereffect, was presented to evaluate system. The accredited probability of failure is about 7.743×10^-4-12. 915×10^-2, and it is between moderate occurrenceprob ability and infrequent occurrence probability, which corresponds to system＇s real results.