中国省际及主要旅游城市旅游规模

Study on Tourism Size of Provinces and Primary Cities in China

借用城市地理学研究中较成熟的首位分布和位序—规模分布理论,以多年入境游客数为指标,研究了中国省际层次和主要旅游城市的旅游规模分布规律。研究发现中国省际区域的旅游规模分布呈现首位分布,但位序—规模分布拟合度不高。根据各省市旅游规模变化和位序变化的协调关系,可以将我国省市分成:均衡型、增长缓慢型和加速增长型等三种类型。但对我国主要旅游城市旅游规模的分析表明,虽然其也基本符合首位分布,但是特征不明显。通过对位序—规模相关系数的回归分析表明,城市旅游规模分布更符合位序-规模分布。在此基础上,分析了经济发展、城市职能变化、旅游资源、边境口岸、重大事件、市场营销、突破型产品等因素对旅游规模分布的影响。文章旨在为区域旅游规模的研究提供一种新的分析途径,进而为国家旅游产业发展和大区域旅游投资政策的制定等宏观决策提供理论层面的参照。

Tourism has made great progress in China since the implementation of reform and opening-up policy, and the quantity of foreign and domestic tourists has a great increase not only in every province but also in cities. Based on the theory of primate city distribution and rank-size distribution which have been frequently used in urban geography since the 1920s, this paper uses the date of major cities and provinces to explain tourism size distribution on the scale of province and single city in China. Considering the possible error in recording the number of the domestic tourists, this paper selects the number of foreign tourists as the criterion of tourism size. On provincial scale, tourism size distribution follows primate city distribution, Beijing and Guangdong province are the primate province （city） in turn since 1990, the primate quotiety is between 1 to 1.6. What is more, according to the balance of the size and rank change, the tourism size growth mode of the province in China can be classified as equalization mode, accelerate growth mode, decelerate growth mode whereas through regression, tourism size turns out to follow the rank-size distribution on single city scale, the tourism size and its rank accords with the Pareto distribution well. Besides, this paper also discusses the impacts of the facts, such as economic condition, city function, tourism resource and boundary port on tourism size distribution, aiming at offering a new method for research of the tourism size and assisting the formulation of tourism policies at national and regional levels.