中国汽车市场需求及其弹性和预测分析

Analysis of Demand and Its Elasticity and Forecasting About Chinese Automobile Market

使用中国汽车和其它有关月度经济数据,首先对目前中国的汽车存量是否对汽车市场需求产生显著的调节作用进行了分析,其次建立了中国汽车市场月度需求预测回归和时间序列模型,最后分析了汽车月度需求收入和价格弹性;研究表明目前中国汽车存量还不能对汽车市场需求产生显著的调节作用,消费者滞后2期的收入和当期汽车价格对汽车月度需求有显著影响,汽车月度需求的价格弹性大于滞后2期的收入弹性;最后,针对结论提出了相关建议.

By the monthly economic date about Chinese automobile and other relevant date, an analysis is first conducted that whether the automobile stock of China can significantly adjust the demand of automobile market or not. Second, a regression model and a time-series model which are used to forecast the demand of automobile of China are founded. Third, the income elasticity and price elasticity about the monthly demand of automobile of China are also analyzed. Conclusions are that automobile stock of China can＇ t significantly adjust the automobile demand, that lag-two income of consumer and automobile price significantly affect the monthly demand of automobile, and that the price elasticity of automobile demand is big than lag-two income elasticity. At last, some p is put forward.