公伯峡水电站施工度汛方案风险分析

Risk analysis of flood handling schemes during construction period of Gongboxia Hydropower Station

通过分析公伯峡水电站施工度汛风险的影响因素,选定主要影响因素为龙羊峡水库入库的洪峰流量,对龙羊峡水库不同运行方式下公伯峡水电站的施工度汛方案,采用概率分布函数计算风险率法进行了风险分析。结果表明,在一定的汛初水位和汛限水位下,减少龙库百年一遇控泄流量,可降低公伯峡水电站的度汛风险。所选4种方案的风险率较为接近,可根据实际情况加以应用。

In order to analyze the risk factors of flood handling schemes during construction period of Gongboxia Hydropower Station, the risk analysis methods are discussed and the factors which affect the flood handling during construction period of Gongboxia Hydropower Station are analyzed. The risk chief factor of flood handling during construction period of Gongboxia Hydropower Station is the peak flow to Longyangxia Reservoir. In this approach, a probability density distribution function is employed to calculate the risk ratio of different operation schemes of Longyangxia Reservoir. If the flow discharge to Longyangxia Reservoir is 100-year flood, the risk ratio of flood handling during construction period of Gongboxia Hydropower Station is decreased when the output discharge of Longyangxia Reservoir is reduced. The results show that the risk of these 4 schemes are similar, the best scheme can be selected for application according the actual conditions.