证据理论及其应用

EVIDENTIAL THEORY AND IT'S APPLICATIONS

在讨论了证据理论的特点之后，给出辨识框架、基本概率指派函数（ＢＰＡ）、似然函数（Ｐｌ）、信任函数（Ｂｅｌ）和Ｄｅｍｐｓｔｅｒ合成法则的定义，并介绍了利用证据理论解决不确定性问题的具体步骤。通过对证据理论已有的实用成果的介绍，指出了证据理论在电力系统中的应用前景。

After introducing the characteristics of the Evidential Theory (also called Dempster Shafer Theory. DST). this paper gives the definitions of Frame of Discernment. Basic Probability Assignment (BPA). Plausibility Function (Pl). Belief Function (Bel) and Dempster Combining Rule. and presents the detail process of applying DST in solving the uncertainty problem. At the cud of this paper. the successful applications of DST in some fields are described. and the prospect of applying DST in power system are pointed out.