哈尔滨市南岗区肺癌发病、死亡10年动态分析及预测

The morbidity and mortality trend and prediction of lung cancer in residents of Nangang District of Harbin in China during the past 10 years

背景与目的哈尔滨市南岗区居民肺癌发病死亡的长期变化趋势不清,为此本研究分析了1992～2001年哈尔滨市南岗区居民肺癌发病和死亡水平及变化趋势,预测近期发病率和死亡率水平。方法资料来源于南岗区恶性肿瘤发病死亡登记报告系统,采用ICD9进行死因分类,利用SPSS软件包分析发病率、死亡率及其变化趋势,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)进行预测。结果10年间肺癌发病率和死亡率处于缓慢上升趋势,年平均发病率和死亡率分别为44.75/10万和41.37/10万。肺癌发病和死亡均居于恶性肿瘤发病和死亡的第一位,分别占恶性肿瘤发病和死亡的25.91%和33.29%。20～64岁肺癌发病和死亡均占肺癌发病和死亡的1/2。预测2006年男性肺癌发病率和死亡率分别为47.79/10万和44.81/10万,女性将分别达到45.80/10万和42.02/10万。结论肺癌发病率和死亡率呈缓慢升高趋势,是20～64岁人群的主要恶性肿瘤之一。人口逐渐老龄化、环境污染和个人不良生活习惯是肺癌发病率和死亡率增高的重要因素。

Background and objective It is not clear yet about the secular changes of morbidity and mortality trend of lung cancer in residents of Nangang District of Harbin in China. The aim of this study is to estimate the trend of lung cancer morbidity and mortality in residents of Nangang District from 1992 to 2001 and to predict their levels in the future 5 years. Methods Data were collected from the annual statistic reports on cancer death cause from Nangang District in Harbin. The classification of death cause was made according to the ICD-9. Predictions about morbidity and mortality were made by the gray system GM（1,1）. Results During the past 10 years, the morbidity and mortality of lung cancer were placed in uptrend slowly. The average morbidity and mortality of lung cancer were 44.75 per 100 000 and 41.37 per 100 000 respectively, and lung cancer was the first leading cancer for both episode and death of malignant tumors. The proportions of lung cancer were 25.91% and 33.29% for episode and death in all malignant tumors respectively. A half patients with lung cancer was 20-64 years old. Predictive morbidity and mortality of lung cancer would be 47. 79/ 100 000 and 44.81/100 000 for men and 45.80/100 000 and 42.02/100 000 for women respectively. Conclusion The morbidity and mortality of lung cancer show a slowly increasing trend. Lung cancer is one of main ma lignant tumors among people of 20 64 years old. The gradually aging population, environmental pollution and individual unhealthy living habits are the important factors of lung cancer increasing.