国防开支对中国经济增长影响评估的两部门外部性模型

Two-sector model of externalities to evaluate the impact of defense expenditures on China's economic growth

研究了中国国防开支对经济增长的正负性影响以及其直接影响和间接影响。采用两部门外部性模型,将影响分解为规模效应和外部性效应两部分,利用中国1960—2000年时间序列数据进行检验。结果表明:规模效应为正,外部性效应为负。这一结果和有关对发达国家的研究结果相反。这说明:中国国防开支规模相对于经济总量处于十分克制的状态,因“挤出”效应而导致经济增长率下降的现象基本不存在;两部门之间壁垒森严,国防部门的投资对民用部门几乎没有正向带动作用,因而需进一步加强国防部门和市场经济的联系。

Policymakers need to know whether the impact of defense expenditures on the economic growth in China are positive or negative and what the direct and indirect effects are. A Two-Sector Model of Externalities was used to divide the effects into size effects and externalities. The model was tested using Chinese time series data for 1960--2000. Empirical results suggest positive size effects and negative externalities, which differs from results in some developed countries. Since China＇s defense expenditures are very small compared with the GDP, the expenditures have little effect on the economy due to the ＂squeeze＂ effects. Investment in national defense has no positive effect on the civilian economy, so China＇s national defense should be more closely integrated with the market economy.