舆情变动规律初论

Initially on the Changes of Public Sentiment

舆情是指在一定的社会空间内,围绕中介性社会事项的发生、发展和变化,作为主体的民众对作为客体的国家管理者产生和持有的社会政治态度。因此,它的基本内容可以理解为民众在社会政治方面的群体心理活动。在本质上,舆情则是民众与政府之间利益关系的一种复杂体现。舆情的产生、变化和结束有其自身的规律性。从它的产生看,它是国家管理者“生产”或“管理”的中介性社会事项,包括各类政策、法规、制度、措施以及领袖形象和社会问题等诸多的复杂内容刺激的直接结果;从它的变化和结束看,舆情是随着刺激它产生的各类社会事项的变化和结束的情况而变动的。但是,舆情作为政治性很强的群体心理活动,它的变化和结束又有着自身复杂多变的规则和轨迹:舆情的主要持有者或主体本身的基本构成和政治素质,都会对他们的群体心理活动的具体情形产生影响;民众对过去的一个社会事项曾持有的社会政治态度,会部分地“残留”在他们对一个新的社会事项的心理反应之中。掌握舆情变动规律,对“建立社会舆情汇集和分析机制,畅通社情民意反映渠道”具有重要意义。

Public sentiment refers to an attitude toward government and social politics expressed from the masses that focus on the happening, development and changes of social issues in certain social space. It can be regarded as a group psychological activity concerning social politics. In essence, it embodies a complex relation between the masses and the Party, and the government. In its process, public sentiment is brought about from the direct result incurred by various politics, rules, systems, measures, and even image of leaders and social problems; in the result, it is always changing with other social issues. However, public sentiment as a strongly-colored political group psychological activity has its own features while changing and ending up, i.e. it is also affected by the formation and political qualities of holder or subject, and the attitude of the mass toward a new social affair is passed partly from their affection of issues that happened before. Therefore, grasping the rules of public sentiment changing have a great meaning for establishing the mechanism of collecting social public feelings and its analysis system as well as for smoothing the feedback channel.