基于GM(1,1)的残差修正模型及应用

Residual Error Modified Model Based on GM(1,1)and its Application

为了提高GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,对GM(1,1)模型进行预测,得到残差序列,然后用残差序列建模对原模型进行修正,得到GM(1,1)的残差修正模型,将其应用到扬压力的预测中,结果表明模型精度大大提高。

In this paper,to improve the forecasting accuracy of GM （1,1）,we first make a GM（1,1）model to forecast, and get a remaining sequence.Then we establish another model on the basis of remaining sequence to amend the foregoing model,as a result,we gain a remaining amended GM （1,1）model. This model is used to forecast uplift pressure, and the accuracy is greatly improved.