粮价波动现象的“蛛网模型”与农民收入增长分析

Analysis the Price Fluctuate Of Grain And the Increase lncome Of Farmer Based On Cobweb Model

近年来,粮食价格波动频繁使得农民收入增长问题日益严峻。本文通过对收集到的我国近年来农民收入方面的资料的分析,认为,以生产粮食为主的家庭经营收入一直是农民收入的主要途径,而粮价上涨推动了农民收入的增长。在此基础上,利用蛛网模型对近二十年来的粮价波动现象进行实证分析,结果表明:粮食的供给弹性大于需求弹性是粮价波动的根本原因。进一步研究表明,粮价形成机制还存在问题。因而提出相应的政策建议,指出粮价一方面要走市场化道路,充分发挥市场的基础性调节作用;另一方面不能忽视政府的调控作用,在遵循市场经济规律的前提下,确保农民收入稳步增长。

Recently years, the price fluctuate of grain make the increase income of farmer seriously. This text collects our country＇sdata of the farmer income in recent years, and the analysis point out that producing the food as main family operates the income has been the main path of the farmerin come, and the food price soared to push the farmer income increases. Here foundation last, make use of the cobweb model analysis the food price motion phenomenon near twenty years. Result enunciation：The supply flexibility larger than need flexibility of the food is the basic reason of food price undulate. Further research expresses food price formation mechanism has problem. As a result put forward the homologous policy suggest, pointing out the food price to want to walk on one hand the market turn the road, on the other hand can＇ t neglect the governmental function, which is at the premise that follow the market economy regulation, and insure the farmer income steady increasing.