暴雨型滑坡灾害预报预警方法研究评述

Review on Prediction and Warning Method of Landslide Hazard Triggered by Heavy Rainfall

滑坡灾害对人类和社会经济的影响已成为仅次于地震的第二大自然灾害。暴雨诱发的滑坡占滑坡总数的90%左右。从滑坡预报方法、暴雨型滑坡灾害时空预报预警、降雨和滑坡机制及稳定性、GIS在滑坡预报中的应用等几方面,分析了国内外动态及发展趋势。分析结果认为,现代数理科学新理论在滑坡预报中的综合应用得到了较快发展;“3S”技术作为滑坡监测预报手段,仍存在没有开发出来的较大潜力;从理论上,机理研究与区域统计研究结合程度有待进一步发展和突破;已建立的滑坡灾害预测预报模型具有很大的地域性、分散性以及由于监测资料不足带来的不稳定性,有必要进行更加系统深入的探讨,尤其要着力建立基于滑坡灾害发生机理的宏观区域预警模型;降雨滑坡关系需有更准确的模型;受降水影响的土体含水量和孔隙水压力的测量方法应更精确、有效;基于WebGIS平台建立区域滑坡灾害实时预警预报系统十分必要。

The impact and damages of landslide hazards on human and social economy have become more and more seriously. Landslide hazards triggered by heavy rainfall take 90% of the total amount. A review on the landslide researches is made, such as, its forecast method, its forecasting and warning, its temporal and spatial distribution, its mechanics induced by heavy rainfall, stability theory, application of GIS. Modern mathematics and physics theories have been comprehensively applied in landslide forecast, which gained quickly development for recent two decades. 3S techniques have been used to monitor and prediction of landslide, but further potential dominance should be developed. Combining degree between mechanism research and regional statistics is dissatisfied, which is necessary to have a breakthrough. Because of its local, dispersed feature and instability due to lacking sufficient data, which should be deeply discussed, the development of regional warning model is therefore emphasized. Survey of water content and pore water pressure in soil body should be more precision and available. Real-time Forecasting and Warning System of landslides based on Web-GIS need to be built for quickly getting data during extremely heavy rainfall.