摘要
采用1470～1979年五百年旱涝史资料,选取杭州、宁波、金华和温州旱涝等级资料,并把旱涝等级资料延伸到2003年。用小波分析、t检验、低通滤波等方法,对浙江近534年旱涝灾害发生的规律、周期性、阶段性和突变特点进行了分析。结果表明,浙江中等强度的洪涝或干旱平均每3～4年发生一次,大涝或大旱平均每10年一遇;浙江旱涝在不同的时间尺度和层次上30年、50年、70～80年周期振荡最显著,其次为10～20年左右周期振荡;旱涝呈现出3个上升阶段以旱为主和3个下降阶段以涝为主的阶段性气候变化特征;突变分析发现浙江旱涝交替出现3处显著的突变,主要出现在1636、1708、1963年附近,呈现出少雨期—多雨期—少雨期的气候演变特征。
Based on the historical data of drought and flood from 1470 to 1979, the grade data of drought and flood are obtained and then extended to 2003. With the methods of wavelet analysis, t-test and low-pass filter, the occurrence laws, periodicity, phases and sudden-change of drought/flood are analyzed for the last 543 years in Zhejiang. The results show that （1） Middle-intensity drought/flood events occurred every 3-4 years and serious drought/flood occurred about every 10 years. （2）Zhejiang drought/flood has obvious 30-year, 50-year and 70-80-year oscillation periods, then about 10-20-year. （3） The fluctuation of drought/flood appears three ascending stages mainly characterized by much drought and three descending stages mainly characterized by much flood. （4）Drought/flood have three obvious sudden-change points including 1636, 1708 and 1963, which represent climate evolution characteristics from lack of rain, stage of rich rain to stage of lack of rain.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第10期76-79,共4页
Meteorological Monthly
关键词
旱涝
规律
突变
drought/flood law sudden-change
