基于粗糙集理论的路段交通事故多发点成因分析

Cause Analysis of Traffic Accidents on Road Block Spots Based on Rough Set Theory

交通事故多为多种原因综合造成且具有不确定性。判别各因素对于引发交通事故的影响程度存在困难,因此,需要引入不确定性分析方法。基于粗糙集理论具有处理不精确、不确定与不完全数据的优势,是一种先进的并处于不断发展的不确定性分析和推理方法。笔者提出路段上交通事故成因分析的模型和方法。具体做法是,根据该路段事故多发点的统计数据建立基于粗糙集理论的决策表,再利用粗糙集模型的简约算法求出各个因素的重要性,从而判断各因素对交通事故的影响程度大小,为决策提供依据。以算例说明模型和方法的可用性。

Many factors contribute to traffic accidents involving some kind of uncertainty. It is difficult to quantify the influence of these factors on traffic accidents, so methods of uncertainty analysis need to be introduced. Rough set theory is a method for uncertainty analysis, which is advancing and under ceaseless development. Based on the ability of rough set theory in dealing with imprecise, uncertain and incomplete data, the advanced models and methods about cause analysis of traffic accidents on road block-spots are proposed. According to statistical data of traffic accidents, a decision-making table is obtained. Then based on the simple algorithms of rough set theory, significance of each factor can he worked out to estimate influence of each factor on traffic accidents, consequently providing evidences for decision-making. Finally, feasibility of the models and methods are illustrated by an example.