我国诱导需求的数量估计

Estimating Quantity of Induced Demand for Medical Services in China

目的:证实在我国的医疗服务领域中存在诱导需求,并估计诱导需求的程度;方法:利用2003年全国卫生服务调查的资料,以所谓“小区域变异”的方法,采用对数-线性回归模型,在控制了各个协变量后,考察供给数量对需求的影响,以推断诱导需求的存在及其程度;结论:确实存在诱导需求,若医师多10.0%,则门诊消费多3.6%,若床位多10.0%,则住院消费多6.1%。

Objective： The paper is to verify that there is induced demand in health in China and estimate its quantitative level. Method： By means of data from the Third National Health Survey in 2003 and “small area variation” method the log：linear models of demand for out-patient and in-patient services are estimated. Result： We find out that after controlling co-variables if the number of doctors is more 10% in an area, out-patient services increase 3.6%; if the number of bets is more 10% in an area, in-patient services increase 6.1%.