中国消费者信心与消费需求拉动效应的实证分析被引量：20

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Chinese Consumer Confidence and Consumption Demand Effect

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摘要美英等国的消费者信心指数(CCI)可预测消费者的行为,也可为宏观经济提供信号传导功能。应用格兰杰因果检验与回归分析,笔者对我国 CCI 与京、津、沪、穗四大城市的社会消费品零售总额之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明：我国 CCI 与北京、天津的消费需求存在显著的预测和单向信号引导关系,与上海、广州的消费需求不存在显著因果关系。 The consumer confidence index （CCI） has great influence on the Macro -economy＇in many countries. It is powerful not only in predicting behaviors of consumers, but also in signaling economic situations for related sectors. Using Granger - Causality model and regressive model, the dynamic relationship is tested between consumer confidence index and the total retail sales of consumer goods in the four Chinese leading cities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangzhou. The results show that Chinese CCI can powerfully predict consumers＇demand and has a single - direction signaling function in Beijing and Tianjin, but not in Shanghai and Guangzhou.

作者杨茂

机构地区天津大学

出处《经济经纬》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第1期21-23,共3页 Economic Survey

基金国家自然科学基金(70473037)

关键词消费者信心指数社会消费品零售总额宏观经济格兰杰因果检验 consumer confidence index total retail sales of consumer goods macro - economy Granger causality

分类号 F713.54 [经济管理—市场营销] F12 [经济管理—世界经济]

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参考文献11

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二级参考文献8

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5Acemoglu D, Scott A. Donsumer confidence and rational expectation: Are agents'beliefs consistent with the theory? [J]. Economic Journal, 1994, 104:1- 19.
6Kumar V, Robert R P Leone, John J N Gaskins. Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures[J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 1995,11:361 - 377.
7Batchelor R, Pami D. Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence [J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 1998,14:71-81.
8Granger C W J. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods [J].Econometrica, 1969,37 (3): 424-438.