超短期负荷预测中相似日的选择方法

Selecting method for similar day in super short-term load forecasting

使用相似日的负荷数据可以提高预测结果的精度。本文分析了影响相似日选择的因素,并结合相似日负荷曲线的特征,利用相似性原理,提出了通过使用负荷以及负荷增量来计算历史日与预测日的距离,从而来选择相似日的方法,并在计算过程中引入了权重。通过对负荷预测数据的统计分析,说明了这种选择方法的有效性和实用性。

The factors that affect the selecting of similar day are analyzed. Based on the characteristic of similar day data and similar theory, the method that computes the distance between history day and forecasting day is suggested. The load and load increment is considered to choose the similar day data. The weight is applied to the calculation. Through the analysis of the result, the method is proved to be correct.