泰勒规则与我国货币政策反应函数的实证研究

An Empirical Study On the Taylor Rule and China's Monetary Policy Reaction Function

本文依据泰勒规则对我国1993-2003年期间货币政策进行了实证检验，发现基于利率平滑假设基础上的泰勒规则模型可以较好地拟合利率变动，并且总体而言，我国利率水平弹性不足，导致实际利率逆向变动，加大了产出和物价的波动。但1997年以后，名义利率的弹性有所增强，这有助于解释宏观经济波动幅度大幅下降的原因。

Based on the Taylor rule, this article makes an empirical study on China＇s monetary policy during 1993-2003. It finds that interest-smoothing Taylor rule can nicely trace the interest rate variation, and that the lack of elasticity in interest rate enhances the volatility of output and price. However, there is also some evidence that interest rate responds to inflation more aggressively after 1997, which helps to explain the reduced economic volatility.