中国城市化与流通产业发展关系的动态计量分析

Dynamic Quantitative Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization and Circulation Industry in China

城市化与流通产业发展之间存在着必然的联系。协整分析与误差修正模型是研究中国城市化与流通产业发展之间动态关系的重要方法。格兰杰因果检验表明,在中国改革开放的20余年中,流通产业的发展加速了城市化进程而不是相反。中国的城市化进程中必须高度重视流通产业的促进作用。

There exists a close connection between urbanization and the development of circulation industry. The important methods of studying such relationship are cointegration analysis and error correction model. Granger causality test indicates that in China＇s reform and opening-up during the past two decades, the development of circulation industry has accelerated, rather than obstructed, urbanization. Therefore, the stimulative effect of circulation industry on China＇s urbanization can not be underestimated.