摘要
由推导的前兆存在时强震发生的条件概率表达式，讨论了地震发生的概率增益模型。同时，由空间地震活动和地震资料的不均一性，研究了平稳条件概率的各种计算方法。最后，以华北地区的各地震带为例，用多种方法计算了它们的平稳无条件概率和河北北部区域未来１０年的强震发生概率。
A probability increasing model of strong earthquake occurence is discussed based on conditioned probability equation inferred for earthquake occurrence with precursors,At same time,the various calculation ways for unconditional probability are shown with non-uniform spatial seismicity and seismic data.Finally,as a example,the unconditional probability and the probability of strong earthquake in coming 10 years in seismic zones of North China have been calculated by several methods.
出处
《地震地质》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第1期45-51,共7页
Seismology and Geology
基金
国家地震局85-05项目资助
关键词
概率模型
地震危险性
长期预报
地震
华北地区
Probability model,Seismic risk evaluation
Long-term earthquake prediction
North China
